Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics

Dynamic Relationship between Inflation Uncertainty and Private Investment in Iran: An Application of VAR-GARCH-M Model

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between CPI inflation uncertainty, and private investment in the Iranian economy from 1988 to 2010 by using quarterly data. We employ a bivariate VAR(5)-GARCH(1,1)-in-mean with diagonal BEKK model to discover in a unified framework how are the interactions between the variables. In the model, conditional variance of inflation and private inve...

The study of the effective factors on investment in private sector in Iran “With emphasis on uncertainty”

Making capital and investment is the main driving forces of economic development. Based on the investment sensitivity to the changes of some of macro-economic variables and risk and uncertainty, the present study evaluated the effective factors on investment in private sector in Iran during 1980-2007. At first, the uncertainty variables of real informal exchange rate, nominal interest rate and ...

IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 53, No. 3, 2006: To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility, and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data by Stephen R. Bond and Domenico Lombardi

This study tests for the presence of real options effects induced by uncertainty and (partial) irreversibility on fixed capital investment using Italian company data. Our approach recognizes that firm-level investment spending may, itself, be aggregated over multiple investment decisions in separate types of capital goods and emphasizes effects of uncertainty on short-run investment dynamics. U...

Investigation of exchange rate uncertainty and inflation on investment of construction companies in Iran

The construction industry in the housing sector plays an important role in economic growth due to its significant share in GDP compared to other sectors. One of the most important factors hindering the increase of private sector investment in the construction industry is the faltering of trust. Meanwhile, exchange rate uncertainty and inflation have the most negative impact on the investment of...

The Effect Of Salvage Market On Strategic Technology Choice And Capacity Investment Decision Of Firm Under Demand Uncertainty

Uncertainty, Credit Spreads, and Investment Dynamics

In the standard bond-pricing framework (e.g., Merton [1974]), the return function of holders of risky corporate debt is a concave function of the firm’s stochastic return, implying that a mean-preserving spread is associated with an increase in the bond risk premium. This feature of the standard debt contract has two important implications for the relationship between uncertainty and investment...